MPI SUMMARY
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Jul 17, 2007 – The Mental Performance Index or “MPI” is the first ever measure of mental performance used in sport (in this case American Football).

The index was developed by Dr. John F. Murray, a licensed clinical and sport performance psychologist in 2002 to demonstrate the importance of mental factors in football such as “pressure management,” “focused execution,” and “reduction of mental errors.”

In 2007, Dr. Murray began using the MPI in a 41-week study to determine the most domintant team in Super Bowl history, and to discover the factors most highly correlated with winning (e.g., offense, defense, special teams, pressure offense, pressure defense, total pressure, or other factors). Weekly reports and analyses are provided at MentalPerformanceIndex.com.

A comparison of teams across weeks or decades was made possible with a scoring system that standardizes relative team performance as a “degree of perfection” analogous to a baseball player’s batting average on a scale of .000 to 1.000. Scoring reflects both physical and mental performance, to support Dr. Murray’s contention that the MPI reveals “actual performance” much better than final scores and traditional statitistics which fail to account for all the plays in the game and do not capture important mental elements or situational meaningfulness.

The MPI uses a very objective scoring system based on team execution play by play, but with an added professional interpretation component to account for the realities of a game and require expert analysis (e.g., pressure, mental errors).

To test the accuracy, reliability and practicality of the MPI, Dr. Murray has spent the past 5 years before every Super Bowl on television and radio, discussing the MPI statistics and giving an intepretation on how the teams are performing entering the game. In the first three major public tests in media worldwide, the MPI almost perfectly estimated the ultimate performance of the teams in the Super Bowl (Super Bowl XXXVII 2003, Super Bowl XXXVIII 2004, and Super Bowl XXXIX 2005), beating the spread each time, going counter to public opinion, and correctly estimating the ultimate course of the games.

In 2003 the Oakland Raiders were favored to win (estimates ranged from 4 to 9) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The MPI showed that Tampa Bay, by contrast, was far superior.

In 2004 and 2005, the MPI analysis showed the teams to be relatively equal and forecasted a very close contest even though the New England Patriots were predicted to win by at least 7 points in each game. The 2004 game was tied with 4 seconds remaining (3 point New England win) and the 2005 game was the first game in Super Bowl history to be tied entering the final quarter of play. New England won by 3.

In 2006 (Super Bowl XL), the MPI accurately forecast that Seattle would perform better on offense and defense and worse on special teams than the Pittsburgh Steelers. The MPI forecast that Seattle would perform better overall was correct, but the lower performing team on the MPI won. At least 20 newspapers wrote about the success of the MPI before the game, and ABC TV in West Palm Beach interviewed Dr. Murray from his Palm Beach office about the system. Bloomberg Radio interviewed Dr. Murray about the Super Bowl four years in a row. Seattle Coach Mike Holmgrem stated after the game that his team had to face two opponents, the Steelers and the officials. It was an extremely unusual game filled with mistakes, and a few huge plays (a flea flicker, long pass, and record breaking 75 yard run from scrimmage) accounted for all of Pittsburgh’s points. Seattle missed countless opportunities to put the game away despite performing better by all accounts. The MPI forecast against the spread fell to 3-1, but accurately showed Seattle’s superior performance.

The forecast rose to 4-1 against the spread in 2007 Super Bowl XLI as the MPI perfectly estimated the relative performance of the teams as well as the Indianapolis Colts easy defeat of the Chicago Bears. The pre-game forecast, published and broadcast widely, showed that the Colts in the playoffs had performed better on the total score, offense, defense, special teams, pressure offense, pressure defense, and total pressure situations. The MPI forecast indicated that a 2 or 3 touchdown victory was imminent when the Cols were favored by 7 1/2 points. Precisely as forecasted, the Colts dominated in all seven categories and also won the game by two touchdowns, 29-17. The accurate forecast was published in the Los Angeles Times, in a front page story in the Palm Beach Daily News, in the Indianapolis Star and in several other major newspapers before the game. Dr. Murray also appeared on FOX national television the week before the game.

The 4-1 success of the MPI was also covered after the game and the MPI will continue to be used each year to forecast the performance of the teams entering the Super Bowl.

Dr. John F. Murray is a sports psychologist and clinical psychologist providing sports psychology and counseling services based in Palm Beach, Florida.

SMALL BUSINESSES TURNING TO VIDEO DEVICES
icon1 admin | icon2 News & Events | icon4 07 9th, 2007| icon3Comments Off

Sun Sentinel – Jul 9, 2007 – Jeff Zbar – For years, psychologist John F. Murray has sent an electronic newsletter to hundreds of subscribers. And he has been the subject of scores of television interviews, and has presented at countless seminars and programs on sports performance and executive training.

So this spring, Murray decided to create his own videos using his in-office webcam. He uses the camera to shoot video e-mails, a video blog, and is working on a variety “webinars” — all shot from his PC monitor-mounted camera.

“This makes sense and is the next logical step from one-dimensional e-mails or expensive video productions,” said Murray, a clinical and sports performance psychologist in private practice in Palm Beach. He even posts a video blog for a weight-loss group he runs. Using video for small business outreach “allows for much more communication. You get all the gestures, facial expressions and emphasis of a video, and can package it to suit your needs.”

Videography is finding its place in the small business market. With the combination of inexpensive Web cameras and consumer broadband Internet services, businesses are able to produce and distribute videos to a wide audience.

What device is best? Whether a desktop or laptop camera, look for features designed to improve the video and audio result. A high-quality lens will produce sharp, clear images, and auto focus functions can keep the subject sharp, even in dimly-lit settings. Color-enhancement capabilities optimize color and reduce image “wash out,” and adjust for various settings and lighting. Cameras with a built-in, noise-canceling microphone reduce echoes and outside noise, and eliminate the need for a headset or stand-alone microphone to record the content.

While greater megapixels often translate to improved image quality, the combination of lens and image processing is important to creating a better video, said Andrew Heymann, senior worldwide product manager for Web cameras for Logitech. The company’s new Pro 9000 desktop and QuickCam Pro for Notebooks both feature Carl Zeiss lenses, 76 degrees of video viewing width, USB 2.0 compatibility and a resolution of eight megapixels, he said. But don’t let megapixels fool you, he said.

“Digital still cameras are caught in the megapixel race,” he said. “This isn’t just about megapixels. It’s about a combination of quality performance and components that create a better video and sound.”

To improve desktop videography, Heymann suggested using a webcam with automatic focus and face tracking that follows the subject as he or she moves around. Most camera software can be set to shoot the video according to specific needs, from lower resolution for e-mail distribution, to greater resolution for high-definition, Heymann said. Many cameras include video editing or effects software to improve the finished product. Heymann recommended beginners use Windows Movie Maker (included with Windows operating systems) to edit the video before posting or distributing.

Setting is important. When JoAnna Brandi began recording videos for e-mail and seminars, she brought in soft lighting, a potted plant and a Japanese shoji room divider to create a backdrop. Well lit and casually dressed, with makeup and a smile, Brandi appears warm and confident in an introductory video about her new video services.

“I have a studio right at my desk,” said the owner of JoAnna Brandi & Company, a Boca Raton customer care consulting firm. Brandi conducts virtual training from her desk, and is writing a seven-part video course to be produced, in part, using her webcam. “I can do broadcasts, seminars, webinars, podcasts, a video blog and social networking. As a small business owner, this gives me the tools that I ordinarily wouldn’t have.”

Jeff Zbar is a freelance writer.

Dr. John F. Murray is a sports psychologist and clinical psychologist providing sports psychology and counseling services based in Palm Beach, Florida.

Seattle Times – July 8, 2007 – Larry Stone – Mike Hargrove surprised many by resigning as Mariners manager last Sunday. “I’ve learned to never say never, but I can’t imagine myself managing again,” he said. “This is probably my last job.”

Earl Weaver resigned as Orioles manager in 1982.

Former Detroit manager Sparky Anderson, a Hall of Famer, says he never filled his coffee cup more than halfway because his hands shook so badly during the season it would spill. When the season ended, so did the shaking.

Jim Leyland: The World Series winning manager walked away from most of a $6 million contract with the Colorado Rockies after the 1999

Dick Vermeil: He led the Philadelphia Eagles to Super Bowl XV, then resigned two years later and didn’t return to coaching for 15 years.

Dick Bennett: The eventual WSU hoops coach left Wisconsin just three games into the 2000-01 season. He said he “simply was drained.”

Jeff Van Gundy: He suddenly resigned on Dec.8, 2001, as coach of the New York Knicks even though the team had won five of six to go above .500.

By his own admission, Mike Hargrove doesn’t expect anyone to understand his stunning decision to step down last week as the Mariners’ manager.

Yet the feelings Hargrove described — increasing difficulty in summoning the requisite effort and competitiveness to run a baseball team, highs that weren’t high enough when juxtaposed against lows that were too low — resonated with many, past and present, in the managerial and coaching fraternity.

“To be truthful, I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone stepped down today,” said Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson, 73. “With all the craziness going on, it’s lunacy.”

Doug Moe, former Denver Nuggets coach, once described each game as “emotional, life-shortening experiences.” Moe was so relieved when he was fired he popped open a bottle of champagne at his news conference, saying he didn’t realize his stress level until he was out of the crucible.

The pressure and stress of the position has brought down many a coach and manager in his prime. The fallout ranges from serious health ramifications to the ever-popular “burnout” that entered the sporting lexicon in 1982 when Dick Vermeil cited it as the reason he quit as Philadelphia Eagles coach.

Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka once said of his fellow NFL coaches, a group renowned their workaholic tendencies, “We’re killing ourselves.”

Ditka suffered a midseason heart attack in 1988, but went on to coach seven more seasons.

Managing a baseball team doesn’t seem on the surface to match the maniacal intensity of basketball or football coaching, but it can exact a heavy toll.

Anderson, as cited in Tim Kurkjian’s new book, “Is This a Great Game, or What?” never filled his coffee cup more than halfway because his hands shook so badly during the season it would spill.

“This is 35 years of managing,” he told Kurkjian. “Two weeks after the season, the shaking stops. When the season starts, it starts.”

Noted author Leonard Koppett once wrote, “What do managers really do? Worry. Constantly. For a living.”

Just ask Jim Leyland, who signed a three-year, $6 million contract with the Colorado Rockies before the 1999 season, then announced in September of that year he was quitting at the end of the season.

“I just don’t want to manage any more … I’ve had enough,” said Leyland, 54 at the time, when he revealed his intentions. “There are a lot of ingredients you need to have to be a successful major-league manager. I’ve lost those skills. Call it burnout. Call it whatever you like. I’ve had enough.”

Years later, Leyland told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “The biggest part of managing is putting out the little fires that go on on an everyday basis, and, if you don’t have the energy to do that, you’re not going to be good at your job. And I said, ‘You know what? I don’t need this anymore.’ I was tired of it.”

Leyland’s third-base coach in Colorado, Rich Donnelly, is also a close friend of Hargrove’s, and he empathizes with Hargrove’s announced intention to buy a red pickup truck and drive off into the sunset with his wife, Sharon.

“With Jim, it wasn’t depression. It was total unhappiness, at that time in his career, with the baseball life,” said Donnelly, now a Los Angeles Dodgers coach.

“The baseball life is like a circus life. It looks glamorous while the show is on, but when the show is over, it’s not glamorous. A lot of people don’t realize what managers do when the show is over. Guess what? We become like every other human being. We have the same problems, the same struggles, the same things that drag you down.

“I call it ‘part-time glamorous.’ You’re in the main ring, and then all of a sudden, when the lights go out and the stadium is empty, you’re back to being the same guy on the street.”

Except that a manager’s triumphs and failures are there for the world to see. When Gene Mauch stepped down as Angels manager during spring training in 1988, at age 62, health issues stemming from his heavy smoking played a major factor.

But Mauch also admitted it was getting increasingly difficult to cope with defeats.

“Unfortunately, even when you win championships, there are a certain number of games that you’re going to lose, 60 or more, probably,” Mauch said at the news conference announcing his resignation.

“As I’ve gotten a little older, I have developed an inability to cope with those inevitable losses.”

Mike Port, general manager of the Angels in ‘88, saw that side of Mauch firsthand.

“When we lost, especially on the road, Gene would go back to the hotel, and that meant more cigarettes,” said Port, who now oversees umpiring for Major League Baseball.

“He’d replay the game in his mind, on a napkin, working the box score backward. He’d go back and analyze the game he managed in a self-critical sense. That took more time, more cigarettes. No one would be tougher on himself than Gene, God rest his soul.”

Hall of Famer Earl Weaver espoused many of the sentiments expressed by Hargrove when he stepped down from the Orioles in 1982, at age 52. His surprising retirement came after a highly successful 15-year reign in which he had five 100-win seasons and captured four American League pennants and a World Series championship.

Like Hargrove, Weaver cited the cumulative burden of 35 years in baseball catching up to him.

“Managing is work. It’s constant decisions of whose feelings you want to hurt all the time,” Weaver said in an extensive Washington Post interview in October 1982.

Reached at his Florida home, the 76-year-old Weaver said he could relate to Hargrove.

“It’s a grind,” he said. “It’s long. It’s hard. When you have to bench Brooks Robinson, you might as well cut your arm off. When you have to say, ‘Brooksie, we have a young kid coming, we have to give him a chance,’ it doesn’t work so well.

“When you have great people like Pat Kelly and Lee May and Don Buford, and you have to tell them they’re fighting for a job, it starts grating on you. It gets in your stomach, and you don’t want to do that anymore. You don’t want to do that to people. But you can’t get soft.”

Weaver returned to managing in 1985 for a two-year stint — a favor, he said, to Orioles owner Edward Bennett Williams.

This is not an uncommon phenomenon for stressed-out coaches and managers, despite their insistence otherwise. Upon walking away from the Rockies in ‘99, Leyland vowed he would never be back.

“There’s no way,” he said. “I’m done managing. I’m tired of the travel. I’m tired of being away from my family. I just feel like a big burden has been lifted off my back.”

Guess who returned last year to manage the Detroit Tigers all the way to the American League pennant? Jim Leyland.

Even Vermeil, the poster child for burnout, came back in 1997 with St. Louis and coached eight more years, winning Super Bowl XXXIV after the ‘99 season.

Hargrove said at his news conference last Sunday, “I’ve learned to never say never, but I can’t imagine myself managing again. This is probably my last job.”

Anderson, for one, doesn’t buy it.

“Michael, when he gets ready, will return again. He’ll strike again,” Anderson said. “I think, at any time, we can all drop the ball. We lose it for a second. I’ll make you a bet: It won’t be 30 or 60 days; that passion just comes right back.”

Anderson proposes teams designate a coach to take over for one week each season to give the manager a mental break.

“It can be spread out two, two, two and one, or all at one time,” he said. “That would give them that little time away that they might need.”

Hargrove’s explanation was unsatisfactory to many who witnessed it, and there have been numerous theories put forward about “the real reason” he quit.

Some believe Hargrove’s statements are consistent with the symptoms of depression. John F. Murray, a sports psychologist in Palm Beach, Fla. — while stressing that he’s not equipped to make a diagnosis of Hargrove from afar — said depression can be crippling in any line of work.

“It’s worse than a broken leg,” Murray said. “If you’re suffering from depression, sometimes you don’t want to get out of bed. Certainly, you have no passion for hard work. If you’re depressed, you’re history for the foreseeable future until you get treatment.”

Hargrove continues to insist, “It is what it is” and that there are no “dark, sinister reasons” for his decision. He said he is completely healthy, adamantly shooting down any speculation of health issues that may have precipitated his departure.

Anderson is a case study, however, that things aren’t always as they appear. In 1989, he abruptly left the Tigers in midseason for what was described as “physical and mental exhaustion.”

Anderson returned to his California home and missed 17 games, later writing of the incident in his autobiography, “I no longer could do all the things that used to be so easy. I no longer could be everything that everybody else wanted me to be. I could no longer be Sparky Anderson. More importantly, I had no desire to be.”

But Anderson says now the exhaustion story was a ruse, and the real problem was a family matter he had to resolve.

“This was a personal thing in the family,” he said. “[Tigers president] Jim Campbell was the greatest in the world. He said, ‘Stay home until you get it all straightened out. We’ll say you were overworked and losing so much and it was just exhaustion.’

“Jim called me after I was home three days and said, ‘Why don’t you go play golf?’ I said, ‘I can’t show up on the golf course.’ He said, ‘You play golf and tend to the other thing in the afternoon.’ I did. I was playing golf. I have to admit, I was embarrassed.”

The biggest mystery involving Hargrove may be why he left at midseason, rather than riding it out until the end of the year. But that is hardly unprecedented as well.

Tony Pena, American League manager of the year in 2003, resigned from the Royals early in the 2005 season.

“It just got to me. I was losing my smile. I was starting to feel sick inside,” Pena, now a Yankees coach, told the Hartford Courant after Hargrove’s resignation.

Frank Layden, then 56, quit as Utah Jazz coach in December of 1988, after five straight playoff berths, while in first place in the Midwest Division.

“The game actually consumes you,” Layden told Sports Illustrated. “You are no longer in charge of your life. After awhile, the ball dribbles you.”

Layden also said, “I just didn’t have the burning desire anymore. The pressure eats you alive.”

If he had to do it over again, Layden told the Los Angeles Times in 2005, “I think I would have gone for psychological help.”

Lakers coach Rudy Tomjanovich, then 56, resigned after 43 games in 2005, saying he was physically and emotionally “sapped” and that the job “consumed him.”

“I went from being this energetic, pumped-up guy to all of a sudden being sapped of a lot of energy,” Tomjanovich said at the time. “Maybe I’m an old general that needs to get his butt off the front line and do something else.”

Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog was 58 when he quit on July 6, 1990 — just three years after guiding St. Louis to the World Series, one of his three pennants in the 1980s.

“I still enjoy managing,” Herzog said. “But I just don’t feel like I’ve done the job. I feel like I’ve underachieved. I can’t get the guys to play.”

Dick Bennett, 57, stepped down as Wisconsin basketball coach in November of 2000, informing his team after an emotional 78-75 win over No. 13 Maryland. Bennett had taken the Badgers to the Final Four the previous year.

“I was prepared to quit after last season, but the way it turned out buoyed me,” he told SI. “I decided to ride the euphoria a little longer.

“I was berating young men for not being all they could be, when I wasn’t being all I could be.”

Bobby Ross, 63, resigned as Detroit Lions coach on Nov. 6, 2000, the morning after a loss to the Miami Dolphins, their second straight defeat after a 5-2 start. Ross was in his fourth season with the Lions, with two playoff appearances in his first three years.

Much like Hargrove, Ross immediately left on a cross-country trip to visit his five children and 13 grandchildren.

“I just don’t have the energy level that you’ve got to have for the job, however you want to put it,” he told ESPN at the time.

Dan Issel, 46, resigned as Denver Nuggets’ coach in the middle of the 1995 season.

“I think I’d gotten to the point where what I had become, because of the pressures of doing this job, was something I didn’t like,” Issel told reporters. “Life’s too short to do that. It’s time to do something else.”

When asked what he wanted people to remember, Issel’s answer no doubt would be echoed by Hargrove: “That I had the integrity to walk away.”

Dr. John F. Murray is a sports psychologist and clinical psychologist providing sports psychology and counseling services based in Palm Beach, Florida.

The Wichita Eagle – Jul 7, 2007 – Jeffrey Parson – {John Murray, one of the nation’s foremost sports psychologists, said “attribution research” looks to discover what players perceive as the cause of their performance or success}

John Elway will not throw a touchdown pass today — unless it’s in pregame warmups with the Arena Football League team he owns. Mickey Mantle will not hit a home run today — unless he does it, you know, at a makeshift field in Iowa.

Emporia’s Clint Bowyer could win the Pepsi 400 tonight, however, and that could be pretty great. How cool would it be for the 07 car to be sitting in victory lane on 07/07/07?

But the connection between this interesting date and sports goes far beyond guys who famously wore No. 7 on their backs. The real bond is what that sparkling number represents to so many: good fortune or luck.

That’s because we can be sure of this much: At a field or on a court somewhere, whether it be in front of thousands of fans or empty windows, a girl, boy, woman or man playing a game will get a lucky break today.

It might be a fortuitous bad hop on the infield or a shanked wedge that clangs beautifully off the bunker rake or just “his lucky day” for the guy whose jumper looks like Jim Furyk’s golf swing, yet is finding all net.

Luck is part of sports, an inherent factor. After all, we normally understand — or are told by people who seemingly have no lives in Las Vegas — who should win.

Yet we never really know for sure, thanks in great part to the luck factor. It’s why we watch, why we still cheer, why we have hope.

In the details

Perhaps strangely — or, if you prefer, fortunately — luck often creates the glorious moments we’ll never forget.

After all, Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw forced a pass that could have been intercepted in that 1972 AFC divisional playoff game, the California football team was basically just blindly throwing the ball backwards at one point against Stanford in 1982, and North Carolina State’s Dereck Whittenburg shot a long airball in the final seconds of the 1983 NCAA Tournament final.

Yet we got “The Immaculate Reception,” “The Play” and Jim Valvano looking for a hug.

Even if it does not lead to a highlight or championship, luck can change everything in an instant or make the difference over an entire season.

John Murray, one of the nation’s foremost sports psychologists, said “attribution research” looks to discover what players perceive as the cause of their performance or success.

Too often it’s luck, or as Murray describes it: “an irrational and illogical form of dealing with stress.”

“For thousands of years, humans have sought to find a supernatural cause for things they can’t control or understand,” Murray said. “With all the unknown in sports, there is so much anxiety, and that’s a breeding ground for superstition.

“Thinking it’s luck gives you a feeling of security when there is nothing but insecurity involved.”

Nowhere is that more true than baseball, where superstition is religion. With so many games and a success-failure ratio off kilter with just about every other sport, luck is not only revered but respected.

Remember Crash Davis in “Bull Durham” explaining the difference between hitting .250 and .300 in a season?

“Just one more dying quail a week,” he sums up, “and you’re in Yankee Stadium.”

The number

In numerous religions for numerous reasons, seven is considered a blessed or lucky number. There are people obsessed with it.

Dan Tompkins of Maine tries to get the amount he pays for gas to end with seven every time.

“It’s like, ‘If I end in a seven, I won’t have any accidents, or it will be a good trip,’” he told the Morning Sentinel of Waterville, Maine.

On the opposite coast, Tony Joyce owns the Lucky 7 Sports Bar & Restaurant in Kirkland, Wash. To celebrate 7/7/07, he is bringing back the prime rib dinner special he abandoned about three years ago.

The price: $7.77, of course.

Asked if he thought such an unusual combination of date and his establishment’s name would result in a banner night, Joyce bluntly answered, “No.”

He might be on to something. Perhaps the No. 7 is overrated in sports, too.

Did you know Mantle wore No. 6 when he first joined the Yankees? Then he was sent back to the minors. When he returned, No. 6 was taken, so he went with No. 7.

Bowyer is No. 07 because it plays off the “Ol’ No. 7″ slogan of sponsor Jack Daniel’s.

Joe Theismann wore No. 7 because Notre Dame would not allow him to be No. 10 due to an old policy that quarterbacks wear single-digit numbers.

Theismann is one of three quarterbacks to start the Super Bowl wearing No. 7, but how lucky were any of them really?

Elway’s first three Super Bowls resulted in crushing defeats by a combined 136-40 score.

After winning the Super Bowl with the Redskins in 1982, Theismann returned the next year and was beaten 38-9 by the Los Angeles Raiders. Plus, he was just kicked out of the “Monday Night Football” booth because it was more important to ESPN to find someone to click with Tony Kornheiser, a newspaper columnist, for goodness sakes.

Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers followed up his Super Bowl victory by nearly dying in a motorcycle crash, which was shortly followed by an emergency appendectomy.

And we won’t even get into the luck of the most famous quarterback currently wearing No. 7, Michael Vick.

Speaking of illegal gambling, though, triple-7 is the winning result on a slot machine, which one can play next to the large sports books in Las Vegas.

And that’s where this date matters the most, to be honest. No, not with sports but in marriage.

Las Vegas is abuzz with what might be a record day for weddings. Many chapels are booked from midnight to midnight, and David’s Bridal, the nation’s largest retailer of wedding gowns, is estimating about 70,000 weddings across the country today.

Spurs guard Tony Parker and new wife Eva Longoria beat 7/7/07 by a day, though, tying the knot Friday in Paris.

So Parker married one of the world’s hottest actresses less than a month after being MVP of the NBA Finals.

Some people are just lucky, no matter the day.

Dr. John F. Murray is a sports psychologist and clinical psychologist providing sports psychology and counseling services based in Palm Beach, Florida.