Washington Post – Feb 5, 2005 – Don Oldenburg – Football Fans, Calling It as They Foresee It – John F. Murray is the Freud of football. A sports psychologist in West Palm Beach, Fla., he devised the Mental Performance Index for quantifying how close a team comes to mental and physical perfection.
He has broken down every play of the Patriots’ and Eagles’ playoff games, assigning point values for factors ranging from “focused execution” to “pressure management.” An MPI score of .600 is excellent and .500 is average.
Murray accurately predicted the blowout upset two years ago by Tampa Bay. Last year, he presaged an “extremely close game” but got the winner wrong — he picked the Carolina Panthers, not New England (the game was indeed one of the closest games in history, a 3 point game decided in the final 3 seconds). This Super Bowl looks like another tough call.
“The Eagles have a slight edge,” he says. Their MPI score is .541, the Patriots’ .525. “When you isolate out only those pressure situations, the Patriots are better. But given a relatively clean-played game, no turnovers or mistakes, Philadelphia has the advantage.”
So which is it? “Total score, you have to say the Eagles,” he says.
Could be a close game.
{It was another game that was one of the closest in history. Don, thanks for the “Freud of Football” reference. I definitely use it! You accurately refer to the MPI as quantifying degree of perfection including mental and physical factors. The MPI’s purpose is to help coaches and teams, but of course everybody loves the fun “pick.” The MPI was right on again in estimating the relative performance shown in an extremely close game, and your article is great! The MPI is 3/3 in beating the spread now}
Dr. John F. Murray is a sports psychologist and clinical psychologist providing sports psychology and counseling services based in Palm Beach, Florida.